Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Oliver KapanenGoals1
- Juraj SlafkovskyAssists2
- Oliver KapanenPoints2
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals1
- Sidney CrosbyAssists1
- Sidney CrosbyPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Rickard Rakell Goal Backhand1–2
- SO0:00Cole Caufield Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Kevin Hayes Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- P34:04Noah Dobson Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Samuel Blais (3), Mike Matheson (13)3–3
- P211:51Noel Acciari Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (15), Arturs Silovs (2)2–3
- P23:54Ivan Demidov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (13), Oliver Kapanen (8)2–2
- P112:40Rickard Rakell Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (17), Sidney Crosby (17)1–2
- P17:58Sidney Crosby Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (23), Rickard Rakell (8)1–1
- P17:31Oliver Kapanen Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (12), Ivan Demidov (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:58Sidney Crosby Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (23), Rickard Rakell (8)MTL 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 36% → 51% +15PIT 36% → 51%+15 pts
- P112:40Rickard Rakell Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (17), Sidney Crosby (17)MTL 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 51% → 67% +16PIT 51% → 67%+16 pts
- P23:54Ivan Demidov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (13), Oliver Kapanen (8)MTL 2 – 2 PIT · MTL 31% → 49% +18MTL 31% → 49%+18 pts
- P211:51Noel Acciari Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (15), Arturs Silovs (2)MTL 2 – 3 PIT · PIT 51% → 71% +20PIT 51% → 71%+20 pts
- P34:04Noah Dobson Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Samuel Blais (3), Mike Matheson (13)MTL 3 – 3 PIT · MTL 24% → 49% +26MTL 24% → 49%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 51%
- ML MTL -105 / PIT -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- PIT: Elo 49.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- MTL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.2 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | PIT and MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −9 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +3 Elo | MTL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.223rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.3% | Shot share | 50.0%16th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 89.4%20th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 5th of 329–6 | Road vs home | 5–1129th of 32 |
| 21st of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 32 |
| 19th of 321490 | Elo rating | 146428th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–19 | 21–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–15 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 12–4 | 18–5 |
| Overs–unders | 22–13 | 17–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 2–6 PIT in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.