Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Sean CouturierAssists2
- Travis KonecnyPoints2
Canadiens- Alexandre TexierGoals1
- Jake EvansAssists1
- Alexandre TexierPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:25Travis Konecny Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (16), Sean Couturier (14)4–1
- P219:10Bobby Brink Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (10)3–1
- P26:26Trevor Zegras Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (20), Emil Andrae (7)2–1
- P119:39Carl Grundstrom Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (11), Sean Couturier (13)1–1
- P119:00Alexandre Texier Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (5), Josh Anderson (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:00Alexandre Texier Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (5), Josh Anderson (4)PHI 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 52% → 69% +17MTL 52% → 69%+17 pts
- P119:39Carl Grundstrom Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (11), Sean Couturier (13)PHI 1 – 1 MTL · PHI 31% → 48% +17PHI 31% → 48%+17 pts
- P26:26Trevor Zegras Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (20), Emil Andrae (7)PHI 2 – 1 MTL · PHI 48% → 67% +19PHI 48% → 67%+19 pts
- P219:10Bobby Brink Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (10)PHI 3 – 1 MTL · PHI 72% → 89% +16PHI 72% → 89%+16 pts
- P318:25Travis Konecny Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (16), Sean Couturier (14)PHI 4 – 1 MTL · PHI >99% → >99% +0PHI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 52%
- ML PHI +100 / MTL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- MTL: Elo 55.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MTL -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.7 – 2.8 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −2 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +41 Elo | MTL 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.531st of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 47.8%26th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 87.9%31st of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 14th of 326–6 | Road vs home | 8–921st of 32 |
| 6th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 32 |
| 27th of 321473 | Elo rating | 148720th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–10 | 14–18 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 2–14 |
| Underdog | 18–4 | 12–4 |
| Overs–unders | 16–15 | 22–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–4 MTL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.