Philadelphia Flyers at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Trevor ZegrasGoals1
- Trevor ZegrasAssists1
- Trevor ZegrasPoints2
Hurricanes- Taylor HallGoals1
- Jordan StaalAssists1
- Taylor HallPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Andrei Svechnikov Goal Backhand0–1
- P318:08Trevor Zegras Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (19), Christian Dvorak (15)2–2
- P119:07Jamie Drysdale Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (19), Matvei Michkov (9)1–2
- P115:53Taylor Hall Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Alexander Nikishin (8), Jackson Blake (11)0–2
- P15:44William Carrier Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Walker (7), Jordan Staal (4)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:44William Carrier Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Walker (7), Jordan Staal (4)PHI 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 68% → 80% +12CAR 68% → 80%+12 pts
- P115:53Taylor Hall Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Alexander Nikishin (8), Jackson Blake (11)PHI 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 80% → 90% +10CAR 80% → 90%+10 pts
- P119:07Jamie Drysdale Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (19), Matvei Michkov (9)PHI 1 – 2 CAR · PHI 10% → 20% +10PHI 10% → 20%+10 pts
- P318:08Trevor Zegras Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (19), Christian Dvorak (15)PHI 2 – 2 CAR · PHI 2% → 47% +45PHI 2% → 47%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 69%
- ML PHI +205 / CAR -250
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- CAR: Elo 65.3%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- CAR -218
- PHI +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.2 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | CAR and PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +11 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +110 Elo | CAR 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 67.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.44th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.55th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 57.8%1st of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.2%22nd of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 11th of 326–5 | Road vs home | 10–64th of 32 |
| 10th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 150213th of 32 |
| 26th of 321474 | Elo rating | 15454th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–10 | 12–19 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 10–19 |
| Underdog | 17–4 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 16–14 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–8 CAR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.