Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Nikolaj EhlersGoals1
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists2
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints2
Flyers- Trevor ZegrasGoals1
- Trevor ZegrasAssists1
- Trevor ZegrasPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jackson Blake Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P312:49Carl Grundstrom Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Rodrigo Abols (1), Noah Juulsen (4)3–3
- P312:26Seth Jarvis Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (11), Shayne Gostisbehere (21)3–2
- P214:12Alexander Nikishin Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Joel Nystrom (5), Taylor Hall (10)2–2
- P29:11Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (20)1–2
- P117:34Trevor Zegras Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (18), Jamie Drysdale (11)0–2
- P110:04Bobby Brink Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (18), Travis Sanheim (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:34Trevor Zegras Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (18), Jamie Drysdale (11)CAR 0 – 2 PHI · PHI 57% → 73% +16PHI 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P29:11Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (20)CAR 1 – 2 PHI · CAR 21% → 38% +17CAR 21% → 38%+17 pts
- P214:12Alexander Nikishin Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Joel Nystrom (5), Taylor Hall (10)CAR 2 – 2 PHI · CAR 36% → 58% +22CAR 36% → 58%+22 pts
- P312:26Seth Jarvis Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (11), Shayne Gostisbehere (21)CAR 3 – 2 PHI · CAR 54% → 87% +33CAR 54% → 87%+33 pts
- P312:49Carl Grundstrom Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Rodrigo Abols (1), Noah Juulsen (4)CAR 3 – 3 PHI · PHI 12% → 46% +34PHI 12% → 46%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 62%
- ML CAR -180 / PHI +150
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- CAR: Elo 54.7%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- CAR -161
- PHI +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.1 – 2.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −6 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +33 Elo | CAR 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 60.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.9% | Shot share | 49.4%18th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.5%17th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 3rd of 329–5 | Road vs home | 10–813th of 32 |
| 12th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 32 |
| 5th of 321543 | Elo rating | 147626th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–18 | 19–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 10–18 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 16–4 |
| Overs–unders | 15–15 | 15–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 7–1 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.