Chicago Blackhawks at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Frank NazarGoals1
- Andre BurakovskyAssists1
- Frank NazarPoints1
Canadiens- Zack BolducGoals2
- Lane HutsonAssists3
- Lane HutsonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:29Nick Suzuki Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: none1–4
- P310:00Noah Dobson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Ivan Demidov (19), Lane Hutson (26)1–3
- P30:20Zachary Bolduc Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Lane Hutson (25), Nick Suzuki (29)1–2
- P114:23Zachary Bolduc Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (17), Lane Hutson (24)1–1
- P17:27Frank Nazar Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Grzelcyk (6), Andre Burakovsky (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:27Frank Nazar Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Grzelcyk (6), Andre Burakovsky (14)CHI 1 – 0 MTL · CHI 40% → 55% +15CHI 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P114:23Zachary Bolduc Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (17), Lane Hutson (24)CHI 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 43% → 60% +17MTL 43% → 60%+17 pts
- P30:20Zachary Bolduc Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Lane Hutson (25), Nick Suzuki (29)CHI 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 56% → 79% +22MTL 56% → 79%+22 pts
- P310:00Noah Dobson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Ivan Demidov (19), Lane Hutson (26)CHI 1 – 3 MTL · MTL 84% → 97% +13MTL 84% → 97%+13 pts
- P316:29Nick Suzuki Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: noneCHI 1 – 4 MTL · MTL >99% → >99% +0MTL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.5% of 600 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 61%
- ML CHI +145 / MTL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- MTL: Elo 60.8%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- MTL -156
- CHI +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.4 – 3.1 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | 0 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +76 Elo | MTL 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 59.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.29th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.532nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.325th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.9% | Shot share | 47.9%26th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 87.8%32nd of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 30th of 326–11 | Road vs home | 8–1022nd of 32 |
| 17th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 32 |
| 31st of 321432 | Elo rating | 148221st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–8 | 14–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 2–15 |
| Underdog | 25–7 | 12–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–19 | 22–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–3 MTL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.