Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Andre BurakovskyGoals1
- Connor BedardAssists2
- Andre BurakovskyPoints2
Blues- Logan MaillouxGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists2
- Robert ThomasPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:08Andre Burakovsky Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Connor Bedard (25)2–3
- P28:57Justin Faulk Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Tucker (4), Robert Thomas (16)1–3
- P115:50Wyatt Kaiser Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (13), Connor Bedard (24)1–2
- P111:48Matt Luff Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Robby Fabbri (2), Colton Parayko (10)0–2
- P13:41Logan Mailloux Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (15), Jake Neighbours (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:41Logan Mailloux Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (15), Jake Neighbours (6)CHI 0 – 1 STL · STL 49% → 64% +15STL 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P111:48Matt Luff Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Robby Fabbri (2), Colton Parayko (10)CHI 0 – 2 STL · STL 65% → 79% +14STL 65% → 79%+14 pts
- P115:50Wyatt Kaiser Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (13), Connor Bedard (24)CHI 1 – 2 STL · CHI 20% → 34% +14CHI 20% → 34%+14 pts
- P28:57Justin Faulk Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Tucker (4), Robert Thomas (16)CHI 1 – 3 STL · STL 69% → 84% +15STL 69% → 84%+15 pts
- P314:08Andre Burakovsky Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Connor Bedard (25)CHI 2 – 3 STL · CHI 1% → 12% +11CHI 1% → 12%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blackhawks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CHI 51%
- ML CHI -115 / STL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- CHI: Elo 45.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHI -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.8 – 2.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −2 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +31 Elo | STL 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.531st of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.632nd of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.4% | Shot share | 47.5%28th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 87.9%30th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 23rd of 326–9 | Road vs home | 5–1129th of 32 |
| 15th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 32 |
| 31st of 321440 | Elo rating | 147725th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–6 | 14–18 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 1–15 |
| Underdog | 24–6 | 13–3 |
| Overs–unders | 14–16 | 16–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–6 STL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.