St. Louis Blues at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals1
- Philip BrobergAssists2
- Philip BrobergPoints2
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals4
- Luke EvangelistaAssists3
- Steven StamkosPoints4
Scoring summary
- P37:36Michael Bunting Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Luke Evangelista (19), Nick Blankenburg (10)2–7
- P215:33Steven Stamkos Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Matthew Wood (6), Roman Josi (10)2–6
- P213:56Robert Thomas Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (10), Jake Neighbours (5)2–5
- P212:06Steven Stamkos Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Blankenburg (9), Fedor Svechkov (6)1–5
- P211:43Filip Forsberg Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (18), Brady Skjei (8)1–4
- P28:38Ryan O'Reilly Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (17)1–3
- P24:17Hugh McGing Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Robby Fabbri (1), Philip Broberg (9)1–2
- P111:19Steven Stamkos Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (9), Nick Perbix (3)0–2
- P18:22Steven Stamkos Goal (9) Batted, assists: Matthew Wood (5), Fedor Svechkov (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:22Steven Stamkos Goal (9) Batted, assists: Matthew Wood (5), Fedor Svechkov (5)STL 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 55% → 70% +15NSH 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P111:19Steven Stamkos Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (9), Nick Perbix (3)STL 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 70% → 82% +12NSH 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P24:17Hugh McGing Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Robby Fabbri (1), Philip Broberg (9)STL 1 – 2 NSH · STL 15% → 28% +14STL 15% → 28%+14 pts
- P28:38Ryan O'Reilly Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (17)STL 1 – 3 NSH · NSH 73% → 86% +14NSH 73% → 86%+14 pts
- P211:43Filip Forsberg Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (18), Brady Skjei (8)STL 1 – 4 NSH · NSH 88% → 95% +8NSH 88% → 95%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 55%
- ML STL +114 / NSH -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- NSH: Elo 50.1%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- NSH -123
- STL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.6 – 2.9 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | 0 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH 0 Elo | NSH 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 53.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.0 | Margin | −0.931st of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 49.4%18th of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 88.5%27th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 23rd of 326–9 | Road vs home | 6–1028th of 32 |
| 27th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 15095th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321482 | Elo rating | 144830th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–17 | 13–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–15 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 13–2 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 15–16 | 15–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 4–3 NSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.