Detroit Red Wings at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals2
- Alex DeBrincatAssists1
- Alex DeBrincatPoints3
BlackhawksScoring summary
- P316:14Alex DeBrincat Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–0
- P214:23Emmitt Finnie Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (24), Axel Sandin-Pellikka (9)3–0
- P14:35Patrick Kane Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Alex DeBrincat (19)2–0
- P10:55Alex DeBrincat Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Andrew Copp (13), Patrick Kane (17)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:55Alex DeBrincat Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Andrew Copp (13), Patrick Kane (17)DET 1 – 0 CHI · DET 63% → 76% +13DET 63% → 76%+13 pts
- P14:35Patrick Kane Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Alex DeBrincat (19)DET 2 – 0 CHI · DET 76% → 86% +10DET 76% → 86%+10 pts
- P214:23Emmitt Finnie Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (24), Axel Sandin-Pellikka (9)DET 3 – 0 CHI · DET 91% → 97% +6DET 91% → 97%+6 pts
- P316:14Alex DeBrincat Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDET 4 – 0 CHI · DET >99% → >99% +0DET >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DET 63%
- ML DET -192 / CHI +160
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- DET: Elo 59.2%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -171
- CHI +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.6 – 2.9 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −21 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.51 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +64 Elo | DET 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 60.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 25th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.9% | Shot share | 45.6%31st of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 90.4%10th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 14th of 328–8 | Road vs home | 7–821st of 32 |
| 28th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 32 |
| 19th of 321491 | Elo rating | 143731st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–17 | 24–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–12 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 12–5 | 24–6 |
| Overs–unders | 18–14 | 14–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–1 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.