Chicago Blackhawks at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Wyatt KaiserGoals1
- Dominic ToninatoAssists1
- Wyatt KaiserPoints1
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals1
- William NylanderAssists2
- Auston MatthewsPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:59Dakota Joshua Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Stecher (5), Jake McCabe (11)2–3
- P316:51Auston Matthews Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (25)2–2
- P39:59Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (9), William Nylander (24)2–1
- P114:58Jason Dickinson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (4), Louis Crevier (9)2–0
- P110:21Wyatt Kaiser Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dominic Toninato (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:21Wyatt Kaiser Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dominic Toninato (1)CHI 1 – 0 TOR · CHI 37% → 53% +16CHI 37% → 53%+16 pts
- P114:58Jason Dickinson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (4), Louis Crevier (9)CHI 2 – 0 TOR · CHI 54% → 70% +16CHI 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P39:59Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (9), William Nylander (24)CHI 2 – 1 TOR · TOR 5% → 23% +18TOR 5% → 23%+18 pts
- P316:51Auston Matthews Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (25)CHI 2 – 2 TOR · TOR 7% → 53% +47TOR 7% → 53%+47 pts
- P316:59Dakota Joshua Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Stecher (5), Jake McCabe (11)CHI 2 – 3 TOR · TOR 53% → 96% +42TOR 53% → 96%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML CHI +170 / TOR -205
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 66.0%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- TOR -181
- CHI +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.3 – 3.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +3 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +115 Elo | TOR 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 63.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.2 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.8% | Shot share | 46.3%30th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.1%11th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 27th of 326–10 | Road vs home | 9–1020th of 32 |
| 17th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149129th of 32 |
| 31st of 321433 | Elo rating | 152110th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–8 | 12–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 4–15 |
| Underdog | 24–7 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–18 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–2 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.