Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins
Canadiens- Josh AndersonGoals2
- Brendan GallagherAssists1
- Josh AndersonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:02Josh Anderson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–4
- P212:14Josh Anderson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Kapanen (7)0–3
- P118:49Owen Beck Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (10), Lane Hutson (27)0–2
- P116:41Juraj Slafkovský Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (18), Nick Suzuki (30)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:41Juraj Slafkovský Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (18), Nick Suzuki (30)PIT 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 54% → 70% +16MTL 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P118:49Owen Beck Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (10), Lane Hutson (27)PIT 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 70% → 83% +13MTL 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P212:14Josh Anderson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Kapanen (7)PIT 0 – 3 MTL · MTL 87% → 95% +8MTL 87% → 95%+8 pts
- P317:02Josh Anderson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePIT 0 – 4 MTL · MTL >99% → >99% +0MTL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 54%
- ML PIT +110 / MTL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- MTL: Elo 56.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MTL -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.1 – 3.4 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −6 | PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +44 Elo | MTL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.28th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.223rd of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 48.5%22nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 87.9%32nd of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 12th of 328–7 | Road vs home | 9–1021st of 32 |
| 26th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 32 |
| 28th of 321469 | Elo rating | 148519th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–12 | 15–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 3–15 |
| Underdog | 18–4 | 12–4 |
| Overs–unders | 17–16 | 22–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 6–1 MTL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.