Toronto Maple Leafs at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- Nick RobertsonAssists2
- Nick RobertsonPoints2
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals1
- Brady SkjeiAssists2
- Steven StamkosPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:51Cole Smith Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (11), Michael McCarron (5)3–5
- P319:06Bobby McMann Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (8), Easton Cowan (7)3–4
- P318:25Steven Stamkos Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (12)2–4
- P39:18Luke Evangelista Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Brady Skjei (10)2–3
- P219:26Adam Wilsby Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (18)2–2
- P211:57John Tavares Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Matias Maccelli (6), Jake McCabe (12)2–1
- P24:56Erik Haula Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (13), Steven Stamkos (6)1–1
- P11:32Nicolas Roy Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Bobby McMann (7), Nicholas Robertson (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:32Nicolas Roy Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Bobby McMann (7), Nicholas Robertson (7)TOR 1 – 0 NSH · TOR 50% → 64% +14TOR 50% → 64%+14 pts
- P24:56Erik Haula Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (13), Steven Stamkos (6)TOR 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 32% → 50% +18NSH 32% → 50%+18 pts
- P211:57John Tavares Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Matias Maccelli (6), Jake McCabe (12)TOR 2 – 1 NSH · TOR 50% → 70% +20TOR 50% → 70%+20 pts
- P219:26Adam Wilsby Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (18)TOR 2 – 2 NSH · NSH 27% → 50% +23NSH 27% → 50%+23 pts
- P39:18Luke Evangelista Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Brady Skjei (10)TOR 2 – 3 NSH · NSH 50% → 81% +31NSH 50% → 81%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 50%
- ML TOR -110 / NSH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- NSH: Elo 45.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- NSH -100
- TOR -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.8 – 2.8 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +2 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +32 Elo | TOR 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.531st of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.730th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.3% | Shot share | 49.1%19th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 88.9%25th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 27th of 325–8 | Road vs home | 7–1127th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321490 | Opponent Elo | 15111st of 32 |
| 11th of 321518 | Elo rating | 145329th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–21 | 15–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–16 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders | 19–14 | 17–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–2 NSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.