Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Tyson JostGoals1
- Fedor SvechkovAssists1
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints1
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists1
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:57Tyson Jost Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Fedor Svechkov (7)2–4
- P316:26Valeri Nichushkin Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (29)1–4
- P29:57Victor Olofsson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (5), Sam Malinski (15)1–3
- P112:37Jonathan Marchessault Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (14), Filip Forsberg (11)1–2
- P111:47Jack Drury Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (28), Samuel Girard (4)0–2
- P11:26Nathan MacKinnon Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:26Nathan MacKinnon Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (13)NSH 0 – 1 COL · COL 75% → 86% +10COL 75% → 86%+10 pts
- P111:47Jack Drury Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (28), Samuel Girard (4)NSH 0 – 2 COL · COL 85% → 92% +8COL 85% → 92%+8 pts
- P112:37Jonathan Marchessault Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (14), Filip Forsberg (11)NSH 1 – 2 COL · NSH 7% → 15% +8NSH 7% → 15%+8 pts
- P29:57Victor Olofsson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (5), Sam Malinski (15)NSH 1 – 3 COL · COL 84% → 94% +9COL 84% → 94%+9 pts
- P316:26Valeri Nichushkin Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (29)NSH 1 – 4 COL · COL >99% → >99% +0COL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- COL 76%
- ML NSH +295 / COL -375
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- COL: Elo 74.4%, market 75.7%
- Fair odds
- COL -312
- NSH +312 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.5 – 4.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1587 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +9 | NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +186 Elo | COL 74.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 74.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 74.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 75.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 4.01st of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +1.71st of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 56.3%2nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 91.9%1st of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 32 |
| 29th of 324–7 | Road vs home | 12–21st of 32 |
| 5th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 149131st of 32 |
| 30th of 321453 | Elo rating | 15871st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–16 | 17–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 16–14 |
| Underdog | 11–10 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 16–14 | 13–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 5–4 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.