Carolina Hurricanes at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals2
- Andrei SvechnikovAssists2
- Sebastian AhoPoints3
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals1
- Steven StamkosAssists1
- Filip ForsbergPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:15Sebastian Aho Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (13)4–1
- P38:06Filip Forsberg Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (17), Steven Stamkos (5)3–1
- P34:33Seth Jarvis Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (18), Nikolaj Ehlers (15)3–0
- P32:43Sebastian Aho Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (12), Andrei Svechnikov (12)2–0
- P113:00Jackson Blake Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Logan Stankoven (9), Alexander Nikishin (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:00Jackson Blake Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Logan Stankoven (9), Alexander Nikishin (9)CAR 1 – 0 NSH · CAR 60% → 75% +15CAR 60% → 75%+15 pts
- P32:43Sebastian Aho Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (12), Andrei Svechnikov (12)CAR 2 – 0 NSH · CAR 80% → 94% +14CAR 80% → 94%+14 pts
- P34:33Seth Jarvis Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (18), Nikolaj Ehlers (15)CAR 3 – 0 NSH · CAR 94% → 99% +5CAR 94% → 99%+5 pts
- P38:06Filip Forsberg Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (17), Steven Stamkos (5)CAR 3 – 1 NSH · NSH <1% → 4% +3NSH <1% → 4%+3 pts
- P319:15Sebastian Aho Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (13)CAR 4 – 1 NSH · CAR >99% → 100% +0CAR >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 62%
- ML CAR -180 / NSH +150
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- CAR: Elo 56.6%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- CAR -161
- NSH +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.1 – 2.4 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +3 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +46 Elo | CAR 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.629th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.8% | Shot share | 49.4%17th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 88.8%27th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 32 |
| 1st of 3210–5 | Road vs home | 7–1026th of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15092nd of 32 |
| 4th of 321547 | Elo rating | 145729th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–20 | 15–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–20 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders | 16–16 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 2–3 NSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.