Nashville Predators at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals3
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists2
- Filip ForsbergPoints3
Blues- Dalibor DvorskyGoals2
- Hugh McGingAssists1
- Dalibor DvorskyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:09Filip Forsberg Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (16)5–2
- P38:29Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (7), Pavel Buchnevich (12)4–2
- P218:45Reid Schaefer Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (12)4–1
- P25:31Filip Forsberg Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (4), Roman Josi (11)3–1
- P21:23Michael Bunting Goal (9) Wrap-around, assists: Nick Perbix (4), Erik Haula (13)2–1
- P110:06Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Hugh McGing (1), Justin Faulk (10)1–1
- P10:27Filip Forsberg Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (15), Brady Skjei (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:27Filip Forsberg Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (15), Brady Skjei (9)NSH 1 – 0 STL · NSH 50% → 64% +14NSH 50% → 64%+14 pts
- P110:06Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Hugh McGing (1), Justin Faulk (10)NSH 1 – 1 STL · STL 34% → 50% +16STL 34% → 50%+16 pts
- P21:23Michael Bunting Goal (9) Wrap-around, assists: Nick Perbix (4), Erik Haula (13)NSH 2 – 1 STL · NSH 50% → 68% +18NSH 50% → 68%+18 pts
- P25:31Filip Forsberg Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (4), Roman Josi (11)NSH 3 – 1 STL · NSH 68% → 83% +15NSH 68% → 83%+15 pts
- P218:45Reid Schaefer Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (12)NSH 4 – 1 STL · NSH 89% → 97% +8NSH 89% → 97%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- STL 50%
- ML NSH -110 / STL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.4 pts
- STL: Elo 58.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- STL -100
- NSH -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.8 – 2.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −1 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +59 Elo | STL 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.530th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.632nd of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −1.032nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 47.5%27th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 88.0%29th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 30th of 324–8 | Road vs home | 6–1128th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 149031st of 32 |
| 30th of 321452 | Elo rating | 147923rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–17 | 15–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 1–15 |
| Underdog | 11–11 | 14–3 |
| Overs–unders | 16–15 | 16–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 4–4 STL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.