Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs
Capitals- Jakob ChychrunGoals2
- Justin SourdifAssists2
- Jakob ChychrunPoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:57John Carlson Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Sourdif (6), Tom Wilson (16)0–4
- P34:02Jakob Chychrun Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (20), Nic Dowd (5)0–3
- P116:16Jakob Chychrun Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Ethen Frank (7), Connor McMichael (13)0–2
- P113:53Aliaksei Protas Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Sourdif (5), John Carlson (19)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:53Aliaksei Protas Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Sourdif (5), John Carlson (19)TOR 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 57% → 73% +15WSH 57% → 73%+15 pts
- P116:16Jakob Chychrun Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Ethen Frank (7), Connor McMichael (13)TOR 0 – 2 WSH · WSH 73% → 85% +12WSH 73% → 85%+12 pts
- P34:02Jakob Chychrun Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (20), Nic Dowd (5)TOR 0 – 3 WSH · WSH 94% → 99% +5WSH 94% → 99%+5 pts
- P38:57John Carlson Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Sourdif (6), Tom Wilson (16)TOR 0 – 4 WSH · WSH >99% → >99% +0WSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 58%
- ML TOR +130 / WSH -155
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- WSH: Elo 58.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -140
- TOR +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.5 – 3.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +5 | TOR: Dennis Hildeby: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +56 Elo | WSH 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 63.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.29th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.54th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 51.6%9th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 91.1%5th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325–7 | Road vs home | 10–77th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 15059th of 32 |
| 11th of 321522 | Elo rating | 15347th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–20 | 19–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–16 | 11–12 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders | 19–13 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–3 WSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.