Toronto Maple Leafs at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Morgan RiellyAssists1
- Morgan RiellyPoints1
Stars- Jamie BennGoals1
- Esa LindellAssists2
- Jamie BennPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:43Justin Hryckowian Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (7), Thomas Harley (12)1–5
- P317:55Mavrik Bourque Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (13), Jake Oettinger (1)1–4
- P312:10Jamie Benn Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Miro Heiskanen (26), Esa Lindell (12)1–3
- P38:39Scott Laughton Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (19)1–2
- P35:03Sam Steel Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Ilya Lyubushkin (6), Mikko Rantanen (35)0–2
- P118:30Jason Robertson Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Oskar Bäck (4), Radek Faksa (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:30Jason Robertson Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Oskar Bäck (4), Radek Faksa (14)TOR 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 63% → 78% +15DAL 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P35:03Sam Steel Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Ilya Lyubushkin (6), Mikko Rantanen (35)TOR 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 82% → 95% +13DAL 82% → 95%+13 pts
- P38:39Scott Laughton Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (19)TOR 1 – 2 DAL · TOR 3% → 15% +12TOR 3% → 15%+12 pts
- P312:10Jamie Benn Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Miro Heiskanen (26), Esa Lindell (12)TOR 1 – 3 DAL · DAL 88% → 98% +11DAL 88% → 98%+11 pts
- P317:55Mavrik Bourque Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (13), Jake Oettinger (1)TOR 1 – 4 DAL · DAL >99% → >99% +0DAL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 66%
- ML TOR +180 / DAL -218
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 66.7%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- DAL -192
- TOR +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.8 – 3.7 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | 0 | TOR: Dennis Hildeby: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +121 Elo | DAL 66.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 67.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.92nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.1% | Shot share | 47.4%28th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 91.2%4th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 29th of 325–9 | Road vs home | 11–63rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 32 |
| 12th of 321514 | Elo rating | 15632nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–22 | 16–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–17 | 8–20 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 8–0 |
| Overs–unders | 20–14 | 17–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–1 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.