Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Bowen ByramGoals2
- Bowen ByramAssists1
- Bowen ByramPoints3
Senators- Ridly GreigGoals1
- Claude GirouxAssists1
- Tim StutzlePoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:31Bowen Byram Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (14), Mattias Samuelsson (10)3–2
- P29:27Tim Stützle Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (22), Dylan Cozens (17)2–2
- P26:11Noah Ostlund Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Bowen Byram (9), Alex Tuch (19)2–1
- P117:13Ridly Greig Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Claude Giroux (18)1–1
- P115:22Bowen Byram Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Greenway (3), Josh Dunne (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:22Bowen Byram Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Greenway (3), Josh Dunne (3)BUF 1 – 0 OTT · BUF 41% → 58% +17BUF 41% → 58%+17 pts
- P117:13Ridly Greig Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Claude Giroux (18)BUF 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 41% → 58% +17OTT 41% → 58%+17 pts
- P26:11Noah Ostlund Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Bowen Byram (9), Alex Tuch (19)BUF 2 – 1 OTT · BUF 42% → 62% +19BUF 42% → 62%+19 pts
- P29:27Tim Stützle Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (22), Dylan Cozens (17)BUF 2 – 2 OTT · OTT 37% → 57% +20OTT 37% → 57%+20 pts
- OT0:31Bowen Byram Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (14), Mattias Samuelsson (10)BUF 3 – 2 OTT · BUF 47% → 90% +42BUF 47% → 90%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 60%
- ML BUF +140 / OTT -166
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- OTT: Elo 58.3%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- OTT -150
- BUF +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.0 – 3.5 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +1 | BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +58 Elo | OTT 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 59.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.36th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.27th of 32 |
| 20th of 3248.8% | Shot share | 52.4%5th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 88.1%32nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 29th of 326–11 | Road vs home | 8–819th of 32 |
| 6th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149330th of 32 |
| 19th of 321487 | Elo rating | 151212th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–19 | 16–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–9 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 11–10 | 9–2 |
| Overs–unders | 17–18 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 7–2 OTT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 9.