Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Noah CatesGoals1
- Jamie DrysdaleAssists1
- Travis KonecnyPoints1
Sabres- Ryan McLeodGoals1
- Mattias SamuelssonAssists2
- Mattias SamuelssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:52Ryan McLeod Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (9)3–5
- P314:28Travis Konecny Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Andrae (8), Jamie Drysdale (12)3–4
- P310:20Josh Norris Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (13)2–4
- P219:30Noah Ostlund Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (6), Alex Tuch (18)2–3
- P216:54Tage Thompson Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (23)2–2
- P211:01Cam York Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (20), Bobby Brink (8)2–1
- P18:38Noah Cates Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (7)1–1
- P17:40Jack Quinn Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (8), Zach Benson (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:40Jack Quinn Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (8), Zach Benson (12)PHI 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 58% → 72% +14BUF 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P18:38Noah Cates Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (7)PHI 1 – 1 BUF · PHI 28% → 42% +14PHI 28% → 42%+14 pts
- P211:01Cam York Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (20), Bobby Brink (8)PHI 2 – 1 BUF · PHI 44% → 65% +21PHI 44% → 65%+21 pts
- P216:54Tage Thompson Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (23)PHI 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 32% → 55% +23BUF 32% → 55%+23 pts
- P219:30Noah Ostlund Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (6), Alex Tuch (18)PHI 2 – 3 BUF · BUF 55% → 77% +22BUF 55% → 77%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 58%
- ML PHI +130 / BUF -155
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- BUF: Elo 56.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- BUF -140
- PHI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.5 – 3.0 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +2 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +43 Elo | BUF 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 58.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.326th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 48.7%20th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 89.7%17th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 11th of 327–6 | Road vs home | 9–712th of 32 |
| 7th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 15076th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321478 | Elo rating | 147723rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–10 | 14–18 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 19–4 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders | 16–16 | 16–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–3 BUF in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.