Buffalo Sabres at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Alex TuchAssists2
- Alex TuchPoints2
Kraken- Chandler StephensonGoals1
- Jordan EberleAssists1
- Chandler StephensonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:14Zach Benson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (11), Ryan McLeod (12)3–1
- P212:24Chandler Stephenson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (13), Jordan Eberle (10)2–1
- P210:08Tage Thompson Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (9), Alex Tuch (17)2–0
- P117:09Noah Ostlund Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (6), Alex Tuch (16)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:09Noah Ostlund Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (6), Alex Tuch (16)BUF 1 – 0 SEA · BUF 54% → 70% +16BUF 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P210:08Tage Thompson Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (9), Alex Tuch (17)BUF 2 – 0 SEA · BUF 72% → 87% +14BUF 72% → 87%+14 pts
- P212:24Chandler Stephenson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (13), Jordan Eberle (10)BUF 2 – 1 SEA · SEA 13% → 27% +15SEA 13% → 27%+15 pts
- P319:14Zach Benson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (11), Ryan McLeod (12)BUF 3 – 1 SEA · BUF >99% → >99% +0BUF >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 54%
- ML BUF -130 / SEA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- BUF: Elo 46.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BUF -119
- SEA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.9 – 2.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +3 | BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +26 Elo | SEA 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.629th of 32 |
| 20th of 3248.7% | Shot share | 47.9%25th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 89.8%16th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324–11 | Road vs home | 7–822nd of 32 |
| 5th of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 32 |
| 26th of 321473 | Elo rating | 146029th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–18 | 19–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 16–15 | 12–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 1–3 SEA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.