Buffalo Sabres at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Rasmus DahlinGoals1
- Rasmus DahlinAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints2
Canucks- Max SassonGoals1
- Jake DeBruskAssists1
- Max SassonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P214:46Zach Benson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Doan (13), Tage Thompson (13)3–2
- P29:12Tage Thompson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (22)2–2
- P26:15Max Sasson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (6), Elias Pettersson (3)1–2
- P119:49Kiefer Sherwood Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Conor Garland (10), Quinn Hughes (21)1–1
- P17:36Rasmus Dahlin Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (11), Jack Quinn (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:36Rasmus Dahlin Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (11), Jack Quinn (10)BUF 1 – 0 VAN · BUF 51% → 66% +15BUF 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P119:49Kiefer Sherwood Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Conor Garland (10), Quinn Hughes (21)BUF 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 32% → 49% +17VAN 32% → 49%+17 pts
- P26:15Max Sasson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (6), Elias Pettersson (3)BUF 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 49% → 68% +19VAN 49% → 68%+19 pts
- P29:12Tage Thompson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (22)BUF 2 – 2 VAN · BUF 31% → 51% +20BUF 31% → 51%+20 pts
- P214:46Zach Benson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Doan (13), Tage Thompson (13)BUF 3 – 2 VAN · BUF 51% → 72% +21BUF 51% → 72%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 51%
- ML BUF -115 / VAN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- BUF: Elo 44.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BUF -104
- VAN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.3 – 3.2 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +9 | BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +41 Elo | VAN 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 52.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.831st of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 47.8%24th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 88.7%26th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323–11 | Road vs home | 4–1031st of 32 |
| 4th of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 15059th of 32 |
| 27th of 321470 | Elo rating | 146628th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–17 | 15–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 16–14 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 1–3 VAN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.