Buffalo Sabres at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Josh NorrisGoals1
- Rasmus DahlinAssists1
- Josh NorrisPoints1
Devils- Jack HughesGoals1
- Colton WhiteAssists1
- Jack HughesPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:59Peyton Krebs Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (14), Bowen Byram (8)3–1
- P216:05Zach Benson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (13), Jack Quinn (12)2–1
- P22:26Josh Norris Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (24), Owen Power (7)1–1
- P18:51Jack Hughes Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (13), Colton White (4)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:51Jack Hughes Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (13), Colton White (4)BUF 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 61% → 75% +14NJ 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P22:26Josh Norris Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (24), Owen Power (7)BUF 1 – 1 NJ · BUF 24% → 41% +16BUF 24% → 41%+16 pts
- P216:05Zach Benson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (13), Jack Quinn (12)BUF 2 – 1 NJ · BUF 43% → 65% +23BUF 43% → 65%+23 pts
- P317:59Peyton Krebs Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (14), Bowen Byram (8)BUF 3 – 1 NJ · BUF 97% → >99% +3BUF 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 62%
- ML BUF +150 / NJ -180
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- NJ: Elo 62.0%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NJ -161
- BUF +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.9 – 3.6 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +4 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +85 Elo | NJ 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 60.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 20th of 3248.8% | Shot share | 50.4%14th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 89.9%16th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 31st of 325–11 | Road vs home | 10–78th of 32 |
| 6th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 15058th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321482 | Elo rating | 149416th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–19 | 14–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–9 | 4–16 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 17–17 | 16–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–5 NJ in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.