New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Mathew BarzalGoals1
- Mathew BarzalAssists1
- Mathew BarzalPoints2
Sabres- Rasmus DahlinGoals1
- Alex LyonAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Josh Norris Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Jack Quinn Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Mathew Barzal Goal Backhand1–2
- P319:31Emil Heineman Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (19), Matthew Schaefer (15)2–2
- P219:37Mathew Barzal Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (14), Simon Holmstrom (8)1–2
- P28:55Tage Thompson Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Josh Doan (14), Peyton Krebs (10)0–2
- P11:47Rasmus Dahlin Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Alex Lyon (1)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:47Rasmus Dahlin Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Alex Lyon (1)NYI 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 60% → 74% +13BUF 60% → 74%+13 pts
- P28:55Tage Thompson Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Josh Doan (14), Peyton Krebs (10)NYI 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 76% → 89% +13BUF 76% → 89%+13 pts
- P219:37Mathew Barzal Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (14), Simon Holmstrom (8)NYI 1 – 2 BUF · NYI 8% → 22% +14NYI 8% → 22%+14 pts
- P319:31Emil Heineman Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (19), Matthew Schaefer (15)NYI 2 – 2 BUF · NYI <1% → 49% +49NYI <1% → 49%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 60%
- ML NYI +142 / BUF -170
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- BUF: Elo 58.2%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- BUF -152
- NYI +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.0 – 3.5 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +2 | NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +57 Elo | BUF 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 61.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 48.8%21st of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.7%18th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 7th of 329–7 | Road vs home | 10–78th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321511 | Opponent Elo | 15066th of 32 |
| 20th of 321485 | Elo rating | 148021st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–17 | 15–18 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–11 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 16–6 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders | 16–19 | 17–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 3–3 BUF in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.