New York Islanders at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Scott MayfieldGoals1
- Anders LeeAssists1
- Scott MayfieldPoints1
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals2
- Lucas RaymondAssists3
- Lucas RaymondPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:43Alex DeBrincat Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (20), Lucas Raymond (27)2–3
- P311:26Scott Mayfield Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (8), Anders Lee (13)2–2
- P33:55Alex DeBrincat Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (19), Lucas Raymond (26)1–2
- P32:03Axel Sandin-Pellikka Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (25)1–1
- P14:27Emil Heineman Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (17), Jonathan Drouin (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:27Emil Heineman Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (17), Jonathan Drouin (13)NYI 1 – 0 DET · NYI 47% → 62% +15NYI 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P32:03Axel Sandin-Pellikka Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (25)NYI 1 – 1 DET · DET 27% → 52% +25DET 27% → 52%+25 pts
- P33:55Alex DeBrincat Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (19), Lucas Raymond (26)NYI 1 – 2 DET · DET 52% → 77% +26DET 52% → 77%+26 pts
- P311:26Scott Mayfield Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (8), Anders Lee (13)NYI 2 – 2 DET · NYI 16% → 49% +33NYI 16% → 49%+33 pts
- P317:43Alex DeBrincat Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (20), Lucas Raymond (27)NYI 2 – 3 DET · DET 51% → 97% +46DET 51% → 97%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 53%
- ML NYI +105 / DET -125
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- DET: Elo 54.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- NYI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.7 – 2.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −1 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +34 Elo | DET 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 58.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 51.8%9th of 32 |
| 6th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 88.8%28th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 4th of 329–6 | Road vs home | 9–711th of 32 |
| 1st of 321512 | Opponent Elo | 149030th of 32 |
| 18th of 321493 | Elo rating | 149517th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–16 | 16–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–10 | 4–12 |
| Underdog | 15–6 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders | 16–17 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 3–5 DET in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.