Vancouver Canucks at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Filip HronekAssists2
- Filip HronekPoints2
Islanders- Anders LeeGoals1
- Calum RitchieAssists1
- Anders LeePoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:39Kiefer Sherwood Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (17)4–1
- P314:55Anders Lee Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (4), Mathew Barzal (18)3–1
- P115:47Kiefer Sherwood Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (16), Tom Willander (8)3–0
- P110:35Kiefer Sherwood Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Evander Kane (11), Marcus Pettersson (5)2–0
- P18:57David Kampf Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:57David Kampf Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (7)VAN 1 – 0 NYI · VAN 44% → 60% +16VAN 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P110:35Kiefer Sherwood Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Evander Kane (11), Marcus Pettersson (5)VAN 2 – 0 NYI · VAN 60% → 75% +14VAN 60% → 75%+14 pts
- P115:47Kiefer Sherwood Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (16), Tom Willander (8)VAN 3 – 0 NYI · VAN 76% → 87% +11VAN 76% → 87%+11 pts
- P314:55Anders Lee Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (4), Mathew Barzal (18)VAN 3 – 1 NYI · NYI <1% → <1% +1NYI <1% → <1%+1 pts
- P318:39Kiefer Sherwood Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (17)VAN 4 – 1 NYI · VAN >99% → >99% +0VAN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 56%
- ML VAN +120 / NYI -142
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- NYI: Elo 56.6%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- NYI -129
- VAN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.6 – 2.9 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +1 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +46 Elo | NYI 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 59.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.28th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 50.3%15th of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 90.9%7th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 14th of 329–9 | Road vs home | 10–813th of 32 |
| 11th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15121st of 32 |
| 27th of 321471 | Elo rating | 149119th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–15 | 18–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 2–10 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 16–6 |
| Overs–unders | 19–14 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 3–1 NYI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.