Vancouver Canucks at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Evander KaneGoals1
- Filip HronekAssists1
- Evander KanePoints1
RangersScoring summary
- P316:52Conor Garland Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Filip Hronek (15)3–0
- P23:24Liam Ohgren Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (6)2–0
- P11:46Evander Kane Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (8), Elias Pettersson (4)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:46Evander Kane Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (8), Elias Pettersson (4)VAN 1 – 0 NYR · VAN 47% → 62% +15VAN 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P23:24Liam Ohgren Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (6)VAN 2 – 0 NYR · VAN 66% → 81% +15VAN 66% → 81%+15 pts
- P316:52Conor Garland Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Filip Hronek (15)VAN 3 – 0 NYR · VAN >99% → >99% +0VAN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 53%
- ML VAN +102 / NYR -122
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- NYR: Elo 55.1%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- NYR -111
- VAN +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.7 – 2.8 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NYR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +2 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +36 Elo | NYR 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.0% | Shot share | 48.1%23rd of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 91.4%3rd of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 19th of 328–9 | Road vs home | 4–1232nd of 32 |
| 12th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15049th of 32 |
| 28th of 321465 | Elo rating | 150313th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–15 | 18–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 5–13 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 13–3 |
| Overs–unders | 19–13 | 12–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 1–4 NYR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.