Vancouver Canucks at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Zeev BuiumGoals1
- Zeev BuiumAssists1
- Zeev BuiumPoints2
Devils- Luke HughesGoals1
- Jesper BrattAssists1
- Luke HughesPoints1
Scoring summary
- P24:02Luke Hughes Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (23), Dawson Mercer (12)2–1
- P16:48Zeev Buium Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (12), Thatcher Demko (1)2–0
- P11:01Jake DeBrusk Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (11), Zeev Buium (12)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:01Jake DeBrusk Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (11), Zeev Buium (12)VAN 1 – 0 NJ · VAN 47% → 61% +15VAN 47% → 61%+15 pts
- P16:48Zeev Buium Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (12), Thatcher Demko (1)VAN 2 – 0 NJ · VAN 62% → 76% +14VAN 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P24:02Luke Hughes Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (23), Dawson Mercer (12)VAN 2 – 1 NJ · NJ 19% → 34% +15NJ 19% → 34%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 53%
- ML VAN +105 / NJ -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- NJ: Elo 53.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -114
- VAN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.7 – 2.8 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −5 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +21 Elo | NJ 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.222nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.3% | Shot share | 50.6%14th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 89.4%20th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 20th of 327–9 | Road vs home | 10–64th of 32 |
| 11th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15066th of 32 |
| 28th of 321463 | Elo rating | 149119th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–15 | 12–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 4–15 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 19–12 | 16–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–2 NJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.