New Jersey Devils at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Connor BrownGoals1
- Nico HischierAssists2
- Nico HischierPoints2
Mammoth- Daniil ButGoals1
- Sean DurziAssists1
- Daniil ButPoints1
Scoring summary
- P34:20Stefan Noesen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (18), Luke Hughes (16)2–1
- P211:21Connor Brown Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (17)1–1
- P19:35Daniil But Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Sean Durzi (6)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:35Daniil But Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Sean Durzi (6)NJ 0 – 1 UTA · UTA 56% → 71% +15UTA 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P211:21Connor Brown Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (17)NJ 1 – 1 UTA · NJ 26% → 46% +19NJ 26% → 46%+19 pts
- P34:20Stefan Noesen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (18), Luke Hughes (16)NJ 2 – 1 UTA · NJ 47% → 74% +27NJ 47% → 74%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 56%
- ML NJ +120 / UTA -142
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- UTA: Elo 57.0%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- UTA -129
- NJ +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.6 – 2.9 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +6 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +49 Elo | UTA 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 58.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.111th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 53.2%4th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 88.9%27th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 12th of 329–8 | Road vs home | 8–611th of 32 |
| 7th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 32 |
| 18th of 321491 | Elo rating | 149715th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–21 | 16–20 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–16 | 6–15 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 16–18 | 18–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 2–0 UTA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.