Utah Mammoth at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Clayton KellerGoals1
- Clayton KellerAssists1
- Clayton KellerPoints2
Red Wings- Emmitt FinnieGoals1
- John LeonardAssists1
- Emmitt FinniePoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:23Kevin Stenlund Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (19), Mikhail Sergachev (19)4–1
- P315:52Dylan Guenther Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: none3–1
- P39:55Emmitt Finnie Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: John Leonard (1)2–1
- P214:17Jack McBain Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Carcone (7), Sean Durzi (5)2–0
- P21:44Clayton Keller Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (19), JJ Peterka (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:44Clayton Keller Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (19), JJ Peterka (13)UTA 1 – 0 DET · UTA 48% → 66% +18UTA 48% → 66%+18 pts
- P214:17Jack McBain Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Carcone (7), Sean Durzi (5)UTA 2 – 0 DET · UTA 70% → 86% +16UTA 70% → 86%+16 pts
- P39:55Emmitt Finnie Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: John Leonard (1)UTA 2 – 1 DET · DET 4% → 19% +15DET 4% → 19%+15 pts
- P315:52Dylan Guenther Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: noneUTA 3 – 1 DET · UTA 92% → >99% +8UTA 92% → >99%+8 pts
- P316:23Kevin Stenlund Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (19), Mikhail Sergachev (19)UTA 4 – 1 DET · UTA >99% → >99% +0UTA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML UTA +100 / DET -120
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- DET: Elo 55.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- UTA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 2.7 – 2.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | DET and UTA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +3 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +39 Elo | DET 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.3% | Shot share | 51.8%7th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 88.8%27th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 27th of 328–13 | Road vs home | 10–77th of 32 |
| 25th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149029th of 32 |
| 17th of 321491 | Elo rating | 149716th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–20 | 16–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–15 | 4–13 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders | 18–17 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 1–1 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.
