Utah Mammoth at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Barrett HaytonGoals1
- Sean DurziAssists1
- Barrett HaytonPoints1
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals2
- David PastrnakAssists2
- Morgan GeekiePoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:02Michael Eyssimont Goal (6) Backhand, assists: none1–4
- P310:16Casey Mittelstadt Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (15), Marat Khusnutdinov (5)1–3
- P20:23Morgan Geekie Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (25), Nikita Zadorov (11)1–2
- P116:01Morgan Geekie Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (24), Elias Lindholm (16)1–1
- P18:34Barrett Hayton Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Sean Durzi (4), Daniil But (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:34Barrett Hayton Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Sean Durzi (4), Daniil But (2)UTA 1 – 0 BOS · UTA 50% → 65% +15UTA 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P116:01Morgan Geekie Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (24), Elias Lindholm (16)UTA 1 – 1 BOS · BOS 34% → 50% +17BOS 34% → 50%+17 pts
- P20:23Morgan Geekie Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (25), Nikita Zadorov (11)UTA 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 50% → 68% +17BOS 50% → 68%+17 pts
- P310:16Casey Mittelstadt Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (15), Marat Khusnutdinov (5)UTA 1 – 3 BOS · BOS 82% → 97% +15BOS 82% → 97%+15 pts
- P316:02Michael Eyssimont Goal (6) Backhand, assists: noneUTA 1 – 4 BOS · BOS >99% → >99% +0BOS >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 50%
- ML UTA -108 / BOS -112
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 57.4%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -102
- UTA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 2.7 – 2.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +3 | UTA: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +52 Elo | BOS 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.112th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.4% | Shot share | 46.8%29th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 90.1%12th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 24th of 328–12 | Road vs home | 11–53rd of 32 |
| 26th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 15067th of 32 |
| 15th of 321495 | Elo rating | 149516th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–19 | 24–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–15 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 23–6 |
| Overs–unders | 18–16 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 2–1 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.
