New Jersey Devils at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Connor BrownGoals1
- Connor BrownPoints1
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals1
- Mark StoneAssists1
- Pavel DorofeyevPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jesper Bratt Goal Backhand1–0
- P315:49Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (19), Tomas Hertl (10)1–1
- P24:50Connor Brown Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:50Connor Brown Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 1 – 0 VGK · NJ 42% → 61% +19NJ 42% → 61%+19 pts
- P315:49Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (19), Tomas Hertl (10)NJ 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 9% → 53% +43VGK 9% → 53%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 60%
- ML NJ +140 / VGK -166
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- VGK: Elo 61.1%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- VGK -150
- NJ +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.5 – 3.0 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +4 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +79 Elo | VGK 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 65.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.9% | Shot share | 54.1%3rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.3%23rd of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 14th of 328–8 | Road vs home | 7–821st of 32 |
| 6th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 32 |
| 19th of 321488 | Elo rating | 15308th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–21 | 8–23 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 4–16 | 5–22 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 16–17 | 15–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 1–4 VGK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.