Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Fabian ZetterlundGoals2
- Drake BathersonAssists2
- Fabian ZetterlundPoints3
Bruins- Charlie McAvoyGoals1
- Charlie McAvoyAssists1
- Charlie McAvoyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P217:26Fabian Zetterlund Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Stephen Halliday (3), Claude Giroux (17)6–2
- P214:36Charlie McAvoy Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Marat Khusnutdinov (7)5–2
- P27:03Dylan Cozens Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (21), David Perron (13)5–1
- P26:44Tim Stützle Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (10), Fabian Zetterlund (7)4–1
- P119:07David Pastrnak Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (16), Charlie McAvoy (18)3–1
- P116:47Fabian Zetterlund Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (10), David Perron (12)3–0
- P113:44Claude Giroux Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (20), Dylan Cozens (16)2–0
- P11:30Drake Batherson Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Jensen (7), Dylan Cozens (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:30Drake Batherson Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Jensen (7), Dylan Cozens (15)OTT 1 – 0 BOS · OTT 57% → 71% +14OTT 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P113:44Claude Giroux Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (20), Dylan Cozens (16)OTT 2 – 0 BOS · OTT 72% → 84% +12OTT 72% → 84%+12 pts
- P116:47Fabian Zetterlund Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (10), David Perron (12)OTT 3 – 0 BOS · OTT 84% → 93% +8OTT 84% → 93%+8 pts
- P119:07David Pastrnak Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (16), Charlie McAvoy (18)OTT 3 – 1 BOS · BOS 7% → 15% +8BOS 7% → 15%+8 pts
- P26:44Tim Stützle Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (10), Fabian Zetterlund (7)OTT 4 – 1 BOS · OTT 87% → 95% +8OTT 87% → 95%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 57%
- ML OTT -148 / BOS +124
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- OTT: Elo 48.1%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- OTT -134
- BOS +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 2.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | BOS and OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −6 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +13 Elo | BOS 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.36th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.217th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.19th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.2% | Shot share | 47.6%27th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 90.0%15th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 14th of 329–9 | Road vs home | 12–75th of 32 |
| 28th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 15065th of 32 |
| 13th of 321507 | Elo rating | 149218th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–19 | 25–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–17 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 9–2 | 23–7 |
| Overs–unders | 20–14 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 6–4 BOS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.