Edmonton Oilers at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsGoals1
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsAssists1
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPoints2
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals1
- Elias LindholmAssists1
- Pavel ZachaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P31:41Connor McDavid Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (19), Darnell Nurse (7)3–1
- P214:38Quinn Hutson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Max Jones (1)2–1
- P116:27Pavel Zacha Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Elias Lindholm (17), Charlie McAvoy (16)1–1
- P113:38Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (37), Leon Draisaitl (31)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:38Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (37), Leon Draisaitl (31)EDM 1 – 0 BOS · EDM 55% → 70% +16EDM 55% → 70%+16 pts
- P116:27Pavel Zacha Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Elias Lindholm (17), Charlie McAvoy (16)EDM 1 – 1 BOS · BOS 30% → 46% +16BOS 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P214:38Quinn Hutson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Max Jones (1)EDM 2 – 1 BOS · EDM 53% → 74% +21EDM 53% → 74%+21 pts
- P31:41Connor McDavid Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (19), Darnell Nurse (7)EDM 3 – 1 BOS · EDM 77% → 92% +15EDM 77% → 92%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 55%
- ML EDM -135 / BOS +114
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- EDM: Elo 49.9%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- EDM -123
- BOS +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.4 – 3.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +5 | EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +1 Elo | BOS 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.36th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.29th of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.7% | Shot share | 46.9%29th of 32 |
| 31st of 3287.8% | Save percentage | 90.2%10th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 25th of 328–12 | Road vs home | 12–53rd of 32 |
| 20th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15068th of 32 |
| 6th of 321541 | Elo rating | 149914th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–20 | 25–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 9–18 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 23–6 |
| Overs–unders | 20–14 | 19–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 3–1 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.