Vancouver Canucks at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Linus KarlssonGoals2
- Linus KarlssonAssists1
- Linus KarlssonPoints3
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals1
- Morgan GeekieAssists1
- Morgan GeekiePoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Liam Ohgren Goal Backhand1–0
- P316:16Andrew Peeke Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Marat Khusnutdinov (6), Morgan Geekie (14)4–4
- P37:34Liam Ohgren Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Marcus Pettersson (6), Jake DeBrusk (8)4–3
- P33:53Linus Karlsson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (10)3–3
- P212:05Tanner Jeannot Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Kastelic (7), Fraser Minten (7)2–3
- P29:41Pavel Zacha Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (12), Casey Mittelstadt (7)2–2
- P24:22Linus Karlsson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Evander Kane (12), Filip Hronek (18)2–1
- P119:45Max Sasson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Liam Ohgren (1), Linus Karlsson (7)1–1
- P18:23Morgan Geekie Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (17), Elias Lindholm (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:41Pavel Zacha Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (12), Casey Mittelstadt (7)VAN 2 – 2 BOS · BOS 39% → 59% +20BOS 39% → 59%+20 pts
- P212:05Tanner Jeannot Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Kastelic (7), Fraser Minten (7)VAN 2 – 3 BOS · BOS 58% → 77% +19BOS 58% → 77%+19 pts
- P33:53Linus Karlsson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (10)VAN 3 – 3 BOS · VAN 19% → 44% +24VAN 19% → 44%+24 pts
- P37:34Liam Ohgren Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Marcus Pettersson (6), Jake DeBrusk (8)VAN 4 – 3 BOS · VAN 44% → 75% +30VAN 44% → 75%+30 pts
- P316:16Andrew Peeke Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Marat Khusnutdinov (6), Morgan Geekie (14)VAN 4 – 4 BOS · BOS 8% → 53% +45BOS 8% → 53%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 62%
- ML VAN +154 / BOS -185
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 63.8%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -165
- VAN +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.4 – 3.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VAN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +4 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +98 Elo | BOS 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 62.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.18th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.2% | Shot share | 47.0%29th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.1%10th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 14th of 3210–9 | Road vs home | 12–63rd of 32 |
| 10th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15075th of 32 |
| 25th of 321476 | Elo rating | 149516th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–15 | 25–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 18–9 | 23–7 |
| Overs–unders | 19–15 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–2 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.