Chicago Blackhawks at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ilya MikheyevGoals2
- Ryan GreeneAssists2
- Ilya MikheyevPoints2
Senators- Brady TkachukGoals2
- Tim StutzleAssists2
- Tim StutzlePoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:10Fabian Zetterlund Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (9), Claude Giroux (16)4–6
- P37:17Nick Lardis Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Alex Vlasic (4)4–5
- P35:31David Perron Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (21), Olle Lycksell (1)3–5
- P31:45David Perron Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (15), Fabian Zetterlund (6)3–4
- P218:32Ilya Mikheyev Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Ryan Donato (6), Oliver Moore (6)3–3
- P214:07Brady Tkachuk Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (9)2–3
- P29:55Andre Burakovsky Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Greene (8), Artyom Levshunov (14)2–2
- P28:02Tim Stützle Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P21:53Ilya Mikheyev Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Kaiser (5), Ryan Greene (7)1–1
- P16:36Brady Tkachuk Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Tyler Kleven (5), Tim Stützle (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:02Tim Stützle Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCHI 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 65% → 81% +16OTT 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P29:55Andre Burakovsky Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Greene (8), Artyom Levshunov (14)CHI 2 – 2 OTT · CHI 18% → 35% +17CHI 18% → 35%+17 pts
- P214:07Brady Tkachuk Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (9)CHI 2 – 3 OTT · OTT 64% → 82% +18OTT 64% → 82%+18 pts
- P218:32Ilya Mikheyev Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Ryan Donato (6), Oliver Moore (6)CHI 3 – 3 OTT · CHI 18% → 37% +20CHI 18% → 37%+20 pts
- P31:45David Perron Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (15), Fabian Zetterlund (6)CHI 3 – 4 OTT · OTT 62% → 83% +21OTT 62% → 83%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 71%
- ML CHI +225 / OTT -278
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- OTT: Elo 68.6%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- OTT -239
- CHI +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.1 – 3.4 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −21 | +4 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.51 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +135 Elo | OTT 68.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 67.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.210th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.3 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.4% | Shot share | 51.9%7th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 88.2%30th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 29th of 326–12 | Road vs home | 7–822nd of 32 |
| 17th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 32 |
| 31st of 321428 | Elo rating | 150413th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–9 | 14–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 5–17 |
| Underdog | 25–8 | 9–2 |
| Overs–unders | 14–20 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–2 OTT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.