New York Islanders at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Maxim ShabanovGoals1
- Ryan PulockAssists1
- Bo HorvatPoints1
Blue Jackets- Kirill MarchenkoGoals2
- Denton MateychukAssists2
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:54Cole Sillinger Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (14)2–4
- P316:41Kirill Marchenko Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Adam Fantilli (12), Damon Severson (11)2–3
- P315:27Ivan Provorov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Denton Mateychuk (10), Sean Monahan (13)2–2
- P213:24Bo Horvat Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (16)2–1
- P117:16Max Shabanov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (9), Anthony Duclair (9)1–1
- P18:09Kirill Marchenko Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (10), Denton Mateychuk (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:09Kirill Marchenko Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (10), Denton Mateychuk (9)NYI 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 56% → 71% +15CBJ 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P117:16Max Shabanov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (9), Anthony Duclair (9)NYI 1 – 1 CBJ · NYI 29% → 45% +16NYI 29% → 45%+16 pts
- P213:24Bo Horvat Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (16)NYI 2 – 1 CBJ · NYI 46% → 67% +21NYI 46% → 67%+21 pts
- P315:27Ivan Provorov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Denton Mateychuk (10), Sean Monahan (13)NYI 2 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 10% → 52% +42CBJ 10% → 52%+42 pts
- P316:41Kirill Marchenko Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Adam Fantilli (12), Damon Severson (11)NYI 2 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 51% → 94% +43CBJ 51% → 94%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 56%
- ML NYI +120 / CBJ -142
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- CBJ: Elo 57.8%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -129
- NYI +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.6 – 2.9 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +8 | NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +55 Elo | CBJ 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 61.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 17th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 49.5%19th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 89.5%19th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 10th of 329–8 | Road vs home | 7–925th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 15082nd of 32 |
| 19th of 321489 | Elo rating | 147824th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–17 | 18–18 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–11 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 19–6 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 16–22 | 19–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 5–3 CBJ in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.