New York Rangers at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers
Islanders- Simon HolmstromGoals1
- Anders LeePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:43Simon Holmstrom Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P10:58Anders Lee Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:58Anders Lee Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 49% → 63% +14NYI 49% → 63%+14 pts
- P319:43Simon Holmstrom Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 0 – 2 NYI · NYI >99% → 100% +0NYI >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 51%
- ML NYR -115 / NYI -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- NYR: Elo 47.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYR -104
- NYI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.8 – 2.7 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +5 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +20 Elo | NYI 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 50.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.112th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 50.0%16th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.5% | Save percentage | 91.1%5th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 1st of 3214–7 | Road vs home | 11–914th of 32 |
| 13th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15092nd of 32 |
| 14th of 321506 | Elo rating | 148520th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–19 | 20–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 5–16 | 2–11 |
| Underdog | 15–3 | 18–6 |
| Overs–unders | 14–25 | 16–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 7–2 NYI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.