Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Travis SanheimGoals1
- Denver BarkeyAssists2
- Travis SanheimPoints2
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals1
- Mika ZibanejadAssists1
- Mika ZibanejadPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Vincent Trocheck Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- SO0:00Artemi Panarin Goal Backhand0–2
- P317:26Mika Zibanejad Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Scott Morrow (2), Will Cuylle (11)4–4
- P39:13Vincent Trocheck Goal (6) Backhand, assists: J.T. Miller (12), Gabe Perreault (2)4–3
- P214:36Rodrigo Abols Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Travis Sanheim (13)4–2
- P212:23Artemi Panarin Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: none3–2
- P210:18Trevor Zegras Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (13), Noah Cates (10)3–1
- P27:05Owen Tippett Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Denver Barkey (2), Cam York (12)2–1
- P26:42Travis Sanheim Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Denver Barkey (1), Matvei Michkov (11)1–1
- P119:24Artemi Panarin Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:42Travis Sanheim Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Denver Barkey (1), Matvei Michkov (11)PHI 1 – 1 NYR · PHI 26% → 44% +18PHI 26% → 44%+18 pts
- P27:05Owen Tippett Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Denver Barkey (2), Cam York (12)PHI 2 – 1 NYR · PHI 44% → 63% +19PHI 44% → 63%+19 pts
- P212:23Artemi Panarin Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: nonePHI 3 – 2 NYR · NYR 18% → 35% +17NYR 18% → 35%+17 pts
- P214:36Rodrigo Abols Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Travis Sanheim (13)PHI 4 – 2 NYR · PHI 66% → 84% +17PHI 66% → 84%+17 pts
- P317:26Mika Zibanejad Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Scott Morrow (2), Will Cuylle (11)PHI 4 – 4 NYR · NYR 4% → 52% +47NYR 4% → 52%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 58%
- ML PHI +130 / NYR -155
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- NYR: Elo 59.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -140
- PHI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.5 – 3.0 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | 0 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +69 Elo | NYR 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 59.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.530th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.121st of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 48.5%23rd of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 91.5%3rd of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 15th of 327–7 | Road vs home | 4–1332nd of 32 |
| 8th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 32 |
| 26th of 321475 | Elo rating | 150014th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–11 | 18–18 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 5–15 |
| Underdog | 19–5 | 13–3 |
| Overs–unders | 17–16 | 12–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–4 NYR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.