New York Rangers at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- J.T. MillerGoals1
- Vincent TrocheckAssists1
- J.T. MillerPoints1
Blues- Jonatan BerggrenGoals1
- Dalibor DvorskyAssists1
- Jonatan BerggrenPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:21J.T. Miller Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (11), Vladislav Gavrikov (8)2–1
- P26:02Gabe Perreault Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Will Cuylle (10), Noah Laba (6)1–1
- P118:58Jonatan Berggren Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dalibor Dvorsky (2)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:58Jonatan Berggren Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dalibor Dvorsky (2)NYR 0 – 1 STL · STL 45% → 62% +17STL 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P26:02Gabe Perreault Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Will Cuylle (10), Noah Laba (6)NYR 1 – 1 STL · NYR 36% → 55% +19NYR 36% → 55%+19 pts
- OT2:21J.T. Miller Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (11), Vladislav Gavrikov (8)NYR 2 – 1 STL · NYR 51% → 96% +45NYR 51% → 96%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 56%
- ML NYR -142 / STL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- NYR: Elo 52.6%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -129
- STL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.9 – 2.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −2 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +18 Elo | NYR 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.531st of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.531st of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | −1.032nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.3% | Shot share | 47.6%27th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 88.2%29th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3212–6 | Road vs home | 7–1228th of 32 |
| 12th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149029th of 32 |
| 14th of 321498 | Elo rating | 147624th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–17 | 16–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–14 | 1–16 |
| Underdog | 13–3 | 15–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–23 | 17–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 2–3 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.