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Winnipeg Jets at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, FanDuel SN MW

Away

Jets

15-16-2

0–1

at

Home

Blues

13-15-7

WPG 58%STL 42%

You didn't pick this one.

Enterprise Center · ESPN+, FanDuel SN MW

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors STL.

STL75%50%75%WPGStartP1P2Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Jets
    Blues

    Scoring summary

    • P213:17Justin Faulk Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (17)0–1

    Turning points

    The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P213:17Justin Faulk Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (17)WPG 0 – 1 STL · STL 44% → 66% +21

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Jets 58%

    LeanMiss
    WPG 58%STL 42%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

    Market
    WPG 58%
    ML WPG -155 / STL +130
    Pre-line forecast
    WPG 54%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    WPG 55%
    Ratings vs. market
    −3.2 pts
    WPG: Elo 55.1%, market 58.3%
    Fair odds
    WPG -140
    STL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    WPG 3.0 – 2.5 STL
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorWPGSTLWhy
    Team rating15291473Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies+11−3WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsWPG +36 EloWPG 55.1%
    Market-implied ratingsWPG 53.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastWPG 54.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastWPG 58.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Winnipeg Jets and St. Louis Blues compared, with each team's league rank
    WPGStatSTL
    17th of 323.1Goals scored2.531st of 32
    15th of 323.1Goals allowed3.632nd of 32
    16th of 320.0Margin−1.132nd of 32
    23rd of 3248.1%Shot share47.5%27th of 32
    14th of 3290.0%Save percentage87.9%29th of 32
    26th of 323–7Last 105–515th of 32
    21st of 327–9Road vs home6–1228th of 32
    28th of 321494Opponent Elo149031st of 32
    9th of 321529Elo rating147326th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    JetsBlues
    14001450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonWPGSTL
    Puck line14–1815–19
    Last 104–65–5
    Favorite10–141–16
    Underdog4–414–3
    Overs–unders18–1417–17
    Overs–unders, last 105–56–4

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    WPG 10–4 STL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.