New York Rangers at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jonny BrodzinskiGoals1
- Taylor RaddyshAssists1
- Jonny BrodzinskiPoints1
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists2
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:23Jonny Brodzinski Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (3)1–2
- P319:12Steven Stamkos Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Smith (1), Ryan O'Reilly (20)0–2
- P210:44Filip Forsberg Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (19), Adam Wilsby (5)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:44Filip Forsberg Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (19), Adam Wilsby (5)NYR 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 50% → 70% +20NSH 50% → 70%+20 pts
- P319:12Steven Stamkos Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Smith (1), Ryan O'Reilly (20)NYR 0 – 2 NSH · NSH >99% → >99% +0NSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:23Jonny Brodzinski Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (3)NYR 1 – 2 NSH · NYR <1% → <1% +0NYR <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 50%
- ML NYR -108 / NSH -112
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- NSH: Elo 42.9%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- NSH -102
- NYR +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.7 – 2.8 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −8 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +50 Elo | NYR 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.926th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.531st of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.630th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.4% | Shot share | 49.4%17th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 88.9%27th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 1st of 3213–6 | Road vs home | 8–1126th of 32 |
| 12th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15121st of 32 |
| 14th of 321502 | Elo rating | 145829th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–19 | 16–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–16 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 13–3 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 13–24 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 3–2 NSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.