Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NHL games
Updated

New York Rangers at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, MNMT, MNMT2, MS2

Away

Rangers

19-16-4

7–3

at

Home

Capitals

19-13-5

NYR 41%WSH 59%

You didn't pick this one.

Capital One Arena · ESPN+, MNMT, MNMT2, MS2

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.

WSH favored NYR favored10 scoring plays
P1P2P3WSH50%NYR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Rangers
Capitals

Scoring summary

  • P318:09Vincent Trocheck Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Will Cuylle (13), Taylor Raddysh (4)7–3
  • P317:44Artemi Panarin Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (17), Alexis Lafrenière (12)6–3
  • P313:43Vincent Trocheck Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonny Brodzinski (5), Gabe Perreault (3)5–3
  • P39:18Alexis Lafrenière Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (24), Scott Morrow (3)4–3
  • P38:10Taylor Raddysh Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Will Cuylle (12), Noah Laba (7)3–3
  • P212:11Aliaksei Protas Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Sonny Milano (3), Hendrix Lapierre (6)2–3
  • P211:14Will Cuylle Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Mika Zibanejad (16), Vincent Trocheck (12)2–2
  • P28:40Dylan Strome Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (14), Ryan Leonard (13)1–2
  • P20:23John Carlson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (11), Ryan Leonard (12)1–1
  • P114:57Taylor Raddysh Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jonny Brodzinski (4), Braden Schneider (6)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P28:40Dylan Strome Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (14), Ryan Leonard (13)NYR 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 57% → 75% +18
  2. P211:14Will Cuylle Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Mika Zibanejad (16), Vincent Trocheck (12)NYR 2 – 2 WSH · NYR 24% → 44% +19
  3. P212:11Aliaksei Protas Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Sonny Milano (3), Hendrix Lapierre (6)NYR 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 56% → 76% +19
  4. P38:10Taylor Raddysh Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Will Cuylle (12), Noah Laba (7)NYR 3 – 3 WSH · NYR 18% → 46% +28
  5. P39:18Alexis Lafrenière Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (24), Scott Morrow (3)NYR 4 – 3 WSH · NYR 46% → 78% +32

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Capitals 59%

LeanMiss
NYR 41%WSH 59%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
WSH 59%
ML NYR +136 / WSH -162
Pre-line forecast
WSH 60%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
WSH 60%
Ratings vs. market
+0.7 pts
WSH: Elo 60.1%, market 59.3%
Fair odds
WSH -146
NYR +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NYR 2.5 – 3.0 WSH
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYRWSHWhy
Team rating14991530Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−1+5NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsWSH +71 EloWSH 60.1%
Market-implied ratingsWSH 60.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastWSH 60.1%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastWSH 59.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
New York Rangers and Washington Capitals compared, with each team's league rank
NYRStatWSH
29th of 322.6Goals scored3.212th of 32
7th of 322.7Goals allowed2.76th of 32
19th of 32−0.1Margin+0.56th of 32
24th of 3248.1%Shot share51.4%9th of 32
3rd of 3291.5%Save percentage91.2%4th of 32
21st of 324–6Last 104–621st of 32
1st of 3213–7Road vs home11–810th of 32
13th of 321501Opponent Elo15049th of 32
15th of 321499Elo rating15307th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

RangersCapitals
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYRWSH
Puck line19–1921–15
Last 104–66–4
Favorite5–1612–13
Underdog14–39–2
Overs–unders13–2516–20
Overs–unders, last 103–74–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NYR 6–6 WSH in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.