Washington Capitals at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Ethen FrankGoals2
- Dylan StromeAssists2
- Ethen FrankPoints2
Red Wings- Moritz SeiderGoals1
- Emmitt FinnieAssists2
- Andrew CoppPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:36Moritz Seider Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (17), Emmitt Finnie (10)2–3
- P310:22Ethen Frank Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: John Carlson (21), Dylan Strome (20)2–2
- P213:44John Leonard Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Alex DeBrincat (20), Andrew Copp (16)1–2
- P28:37Lucas Raymond Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Axel Sandin-Pellikka (10), Emmitt Finnie (9)1–1
- P114:17Ethen Frank Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Dylan Strome (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:17Ethen Frank Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Dylan Strome (19)WSH 1 – 0 DET · WSH 49% → 65% +16WSH 49% → 65%+16 pts
- P28:37Lucas Raymond Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Axel Sandin-Pellikka (10), Emmitt Finnie (9)WSH 1 – 1 DET · DET 31% → 51% +19DET 31% → 51%+19 pts
- P213:44John Leonard Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Alex DeBrincat (20), Andrew Copp (16)WSH 1 – 2 DET · DET 51% → 72% +21DET 51% → 72%+21 pts
- P310:22Ethen Frank Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: John Carlson (21), Dylan Strome (20)WSH 2 – 2 DET · WSH 18% → 50% +32WSH 18% → 50%+32 pts
- OT4:36Moritz Seider Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (17), Emmitt Finnie (10)WSH 2 – 3 DET · DET 50% → >99% +50DET 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 51%
- ML WSH -105 / DET -115
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- DET: Elo 52.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -104
- WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.7 – 2.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | DET and WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +2 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +17 Elo | DET 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.3% | Shot share | 52.1%7th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 88.8%27th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 14th of 328–8 | Road vs home | 10–813th of 32 |
| 10th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 149031st of 32 |
| 8th of 321532 | Elo rating | 149815th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–15 | 17–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–13 | 4–14 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 13–5 |
| Overs–unders | 16–19 | 19–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–3 DET in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.