Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Moritz SeiderGoals1
- Simon EdvinssonAssists2
- Moritz SeiderPoints2
Capitals- Martin FehervaryGoals1
- Declan ChisholmAssists1
- Martin FehervaryPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:10Dylan Larkin Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Edvinsson (8)5–2
- P38:30Martin Fehervary Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Declan Chisholm (3), Dylan Strome (18)4–2
- P210:36Aliaksei Protas Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (17), Rasmus Sandin (8)4–1
- P210:05Moritz Seider Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none4–0
- P25:55Elmer Soderblom Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Marco Kasper (2), Albert Johansson (4)3–0
- P21:37James van Riemsdyk Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (21), Andrew Copp (15)2–0
- P11:05John Leonard Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Edvinsson (7), Andrew Copp (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:05John Leonard Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Edvinsson (7), Andrew Copp (14)DET 1 – 0 WSH · DET 41% → 55% +15DET 41% → 55%+15 pts
- P21:37James van Riemsdyk Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (21), Andrew Copp (15)DET 2 – 0 WSH · DET 61% → 77% +16DET 61% → 77%+16 pts
- P25:55Elmer Soderblom Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Marco Kasper (2), Albert Johansson (4)DET 3 – 0 WSH · DET 79% → 90% +11DET 79% → 90%+11 pts
- P210:05Moritz Seider Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: noneDET 4 – 0 WSH · DET 92% → 97% +5DET 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P210:36Aliaksei Protas Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (17), Rasmus Sandin (8)DET 4 – 1 WSH · WSH 3% → 8% +5WSH 3% → 8%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 59%
- ML DET +136 / WSH -162
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 62.3%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -146
- DET +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.5 – 3.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +6 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +88 Elo | WSH 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 60.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.27th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.63rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.8% | Shot share | 51.7%8th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 91.3%4th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 13th of 329–8 | Road vs home | 11–77th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 15059th of 32 |
| 18th of 321492 | Elo rating | 15387th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–19 | 20–14 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–14 | 12–12 |
| Underdog | 12–5 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders | 18–17 | 15–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–4 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.