New Jersey Devils at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Brett PesceGoals1
- Dawson MercerAssists1
- Brett PescePoints1
Islanders- Simon HolmstromGoals1
- Simon HolmstromAssists1
- Simon HolmstromPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:45Adam Pelech Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (15), Simon Holmstrom (9)1–2
- P212:10Simon Holmstrom Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P115:35Brett Pesce Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (19), Dawson Mercer (14)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:35Brett Pesce Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (19), Dawson Mercer (14)NJ 1 – 0 NYI · NJ 54% → 70% +16NJ 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P212:10Simon Holmstrom Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 27% → 47% +20NYI 27% → 47%+20 pts
- P318:45Adam Pelech Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (15), Simon Holmstrom (9)NJ 1 – 2 NYI · NYI 49% → >99% +50NYI 49% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 54%
- ML NJ -130 / NYI +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- NJ: Elo 45.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -119
- NYI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.9 – 2.6 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +4 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +34 Elo | NYI 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.111th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 50.2%15th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.9%7th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 8th of 3210–8 | Road vs home | 10–916th of 32 |
| 7th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 15102nd of 32 |
| 17th of 321489 | Elo rating | 148322nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–22 | 19–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–17 | 2–11 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 17–6 |
| Overs–unders | 16–20 | 16–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 4–4 NYI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.