Washington Capitals at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals2
- Dylan StromeAssists2
- Tom WilsonPoints3
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals2
- Seth JonesAssists2
- Sam ReinhartPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:25Sam Reinhart Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (13), Aaron Ekblad (13)3–5
- P313:12Aaron Ekblad Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (21), Anton Lundell (17)3–4
- P36:16Brad Marchand Goal (22) Batted, assists: Sam Bennett (15), Seth Jones (17)3–3
- P33:11Dylan Strome Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (18), Aliaksei Protas (14)3–2
- P119:17Tom Wilson Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (23), Jakob Chychrun (15)2–2
- P112:45Sam Reinhart Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (16), Brad Marchand (22)1–2
- P14:35Anton Lundell Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Jeff Petry (8)1–1
- P13:53Tom Wilson Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (9), Dylan Strome (22)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:45Sam Reinhart Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (16), Brad Marchand (22)WSH 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 53% → 69% +16FLA 53% → 69%+16 pts
- P119:17Tom Wilson Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (23), Jakob Chychrun (15)WSH 2 – 2 FLA · WSH 30% → 47% +17WSH 30% → 47%+17 pts
- P33:11Dylan Strome Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (18), Aliaksei Protas (14)WSH 3 – 2 FLA · WSH 48% → 74% +26WSH 48% → 74%+26 pts
- P36:16Brad Marchand Goal (22) Batted, assists: Sam Bennett (15), Seth Jones (17)WSH 3 – 3 FLA · FLA 23% → 52% +28FLA 23% → 52%+28 pts
- P313:12Aaron Ekblad Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (21), Anton Lundell (17)WSH 3 – 4 FLA · FLA 51% → 87% +36FLA 51% → 87%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 53%
- ML WSH +105 / FLA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- FLA: Elo 59.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- FLA -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.7 – 2.8 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +8 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +64 Elo | FLA 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.210th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.217th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | 0.012th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 52.3%5th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.2%21st of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 13th of 329–9 | Road vs home | 12–1016th of 32 |
| 7th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 150213th of 32 |
| 8th of 321525 | Elo rating | 15474th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–16 | 12–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 6–22 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 18–20 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–4 FLA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.