Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Seth JonesGoals1
- Sam ReinhartAssists3
- Sam ReinhartPoints3
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovGoals1
- Joel NystromAssists1
- Eric RobinsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:21Seth Jones Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (19), Brad Marchand (21)5–2
- P39:57Sam Bennett Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (8), Aaron Ekblad (12)4–2
- P37:00Anton Lundell Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (18), Eetu Luostarinen (12)3–2
- P36:17Luke Kunin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Gregor (2), Aaron Ekblad (11)2–2
- P33:53Niko Mikkola Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (11), Sam Reinhart (17)1–2
- P21:58Andrei Svechnikov Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (6)0–2
- P14:11Eric Robinson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (19), Joel Nystrom (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:11Eric Robinson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (19), Joel Nystrom (6)FLA 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 56% → 70% +14CAR 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P33:53Niko Mikkola Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (11), Sam Reinhart (17)FLA 1 – 2 CAR · FLA 7% → 22% +15FLA 7% → 22%+15 pts
- P36:17Luke Kunin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Gregor (2), Aaron Ekblad (11)FLA 2 – 2 CAR · FLA 20% → 47% +27FLA 20% → 47%+27 pts
- P37:00Anton Lundell Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (18), Eetu Luostarinen (12)FLA 3 – 2 CAR · FLA 47% → 76% +29FLA 47% → 76%+29 pts
- P39:57Sam Bennett Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (8), Aaron Ekblad (12)FLA 4 – 2 CAR · FLA 80% → 96% +16FLA 80% → 96%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 56%
- ML FLA +120 / CAR -142
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 52.2%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -129
- FLA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.1 – 3.4 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −8 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +15 Elo | CAR 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.44th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 32 |
| 13th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.54th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.3% | Shot share | 56.9%1st of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.4%20th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 14th of 327–7 | Road vs home | 11–64th of 32 |
| 17th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321546 | Elo rating | 15465th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–24 | 13–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–22 | 11–21 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 19–16 | 18–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 8–4 CAR in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.
- Dec 19CAR 3 @ FLA 4Picked CAR 55%Miss
- May 28FLA 5 @ CAR 3PlayoffsPicked FLA 53%Hit
- May 26CAR 3 @ FLA 0PlayoffsPicked FLA 61%Miss
- May 24CAR 2 @ FLA 6PlayoffsPicked FLA 56%Hit
- May 22FLA 5 @ CAR 0PlayoffsPicked CAR 56%Miss
- May 20FLA 5 @ CAR 2PlayoffsPicked CAR 55%Miss
- Jan 2CAR 3 @ FLA 1Picked FLA 53%Miss
- Nov 30CAR 0 @ FLA 6Picked CAR 53%Miss