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Carolina Hurricanes at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast

Final/SOESPN+, Scripps Sports, FanDuel SN South

Away

Hurricanes

22-9-3

3–4

at

Home

Panthers

19-13-2

CAR 55%FLA 45%

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Amerant Bank Arena · ESPN+, Scripps Sports, FanDuel SN South

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.

FLA favored CAR favored6 scoring plays
P1P2P3FLA50%CAR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Hurricanes
Panthers

Scoring summary

  • SO0:00Evan Rodrigues Goal Wrist Shot1–2
  • SO0:00Jackson Blake Goal Wrist Shot1–2
  • SO0:00Sam Reinhart Goal Snap Shot1–2
  • P319:18Sam Reinhart Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (19), Evan Rodrigues (10)3–3
  • P317:35Sam Bennett Goal (12) Batted, assists: Evan Rodrigues (9), Sam Reinhart (16)3–2
  • P310:16Brad Marchand Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (12), Carter Verhaeghe (17)3–1
  • P37:34Sebastian Aho Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (15), Seth Jarvis (10)3–0
  • P31:27Sebastian Aho Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (14), Seth Jarvis (9)2–0
  • P111:53Jordan Staal Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Eric Robinson (3), Shayne Gostisbehere (22)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P111:53Jordan Staal Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Eric Robinson (3), Shayne Gostisbehere (22)CAR 1 – 0 FLA · CAR 55% → 70% +15
  2. P31:27Sebastian Aho Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (14), Seth Jarvis (9)CAR 2 – 0 FLA · CAR 77% → 92% +15
  3. P37:34Sebastian Aho Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (15), Seth Jarvis (10)CAR 3 – 0 FLA · CAR 95% → >99% +4
  4. P317:35Sam Bennett Goal (12) Batted, assists: Evan Rodrigues (9), Sam Reinhart (16)CAR 3 – 2 FLA · FLA <1% → 3% +3
  5. P319:18Sam Reinhart Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (19), Evan Rodrigues (10)CAR 3 – 3 FLA · FLA <1% → 49% +49

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Hurricanes 55%

LeanMiss
CAR 55%FLA 45%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
CAR 55%
ML CAR -135 / FLA +114
Pre-line forecast
CAR 48%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CAR 45%
Ratings vs. market
−9.9 pts
CAR: Elo 45.2%, market 55.1%
Fair odds
CAR -123
FLA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
CAR 2.9 – 2.6 FLA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCARFLAWhy
Team rating15511550Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+12+10CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsFLA +33 EloFLA 54.8%
Market-implied ratingsFLA 51.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastFLA 51.8%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCAR 55.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers compared, with each team's league rank
CARStatFLA
5th of 323.4Goals scored3.29th of 32
8th of 322.8Goals allowed3.118th of 32
4th of 32+0.6Margin+0.113th of 32
1st of 3257.8%Shot share52.2%5th of 32
20th of 3289.5%Save percentage89.4%22nd of 32
1st of 328–2Last 106–46th of 32
1st of 3211–5Road vs home11–810th of 32
14th of 321500Opponent Elo149917th of 32
3rd of 321551Elo rating15504th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

HurricanesPanthers
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCARFLA
Puck line13–2010–23
Last 104–63–7
Favorite11–206–21
Underdog2–04–2
Overs–unders16–1717–16
Overs–unders, last 102–85–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CAR 4–7 FLA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.