St. Louis Blues at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals2
- Jonatan BerggrenAssists2
- Robert ThomasPoints3
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals1
- Brad MarchandAssists1
- Sam ReinhartPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:28Robert Thomas Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–2
- P312:53Robert Thomas Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (14), Jonatan Berggren (6)5–2
- P312:02Jake Neighbours Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Otto Stenberg (2), Brayden Schenn (8)4–2
- P219:59Justin Faulk Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Jonatan Berggren (5)3–2
- P212:45Sam Reinhart Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (20), Sam Bennett (13)2–2
- P27:35A.J. Greer Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Jesper Boqvist (4), Seth Jones (15)2–1
- P21:55Jonatan Berggren Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (13), Robert Thomas (18)2–0
- P19:59Jake Neighbours Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Cam Fowler (12), Otto Stenberg (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:59Jake Neighbours Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Cam Fowler (12), Otto Stenberg (1)STL 1 – 0 FLA · STL 39% → 55% +16STL 39% → 55%+16 pts
- P21:55Jonatan Berggren Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (13), Robert Thomas (18)STL 2 – 0 FLA · STL 59% → 75% +16STL 59% → 75%+16 pts
- P27:35A.J. Greer Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Jesper Boqvist (4), Seth Jones (15)STL 2 – 1 FLA · FLA 22% → 39% +17FLA 22% → 39%+17 pts
- P212:45Sam Reinhart Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (20), Sam Bennett (13)STL 2 – 2 FLA · FLA 37% → 58% +21FLA 37% → 58%+21 pts
- P219:59Justin Faulk Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Jonatan Berggren (5)STL 3 – 2 FLA · STL 43% → 68% +25STL 43% → 68%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 62%
- ML STL +150 / FLA -180
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- FLA: Elo 59.0%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- FLA -161
- STL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.4 – 3.1 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −20 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.51 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +63 Elo | FLA 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 62.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.4 | Goals scored | 3.28th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.0 | Margin | +0.19th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 52.5%5th of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 89.4%22nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 28th of 326–10 | Road vs home | 12–88th of 32 |
| 29th of 321491 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 32 |
| 26th of 321474 | Elo rating | 15533rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–19 | 11–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–16 | 6–21 |
| Underdog | 16–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 17–19 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 1–3 FLA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.