Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Eric RobinsonGoals1
- Mark JankowskiAssists1
- Eric RobinsonPoints1
Lightning- Jake GuentzelGoals2
- Charle-Edouard D'AstousAssists2
- Jake GuentzelPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:33Jake Guentzel Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (4)4–6
- P36:38Jake Guentzel Goal (16) Backhand, assists: J.J. Moser (9), Nick Paul (5)4–5
- P33:13Ryan McDonagh Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Pontus Holmberg (6), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (8)4–4
- P32:47Andrei Svechnikov Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Mark Jankowski (4), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (4)4–3
- P216:36Jack Finley Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dominic James (5), Yanni Gourde (7)3–3
- P21:20Brayden Point Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (7), Nikita Kucherov (30)3–2
- P20:30Gage Goncalves Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dominic James (4), Max Crozier (5)3–1
- P112:27Bradly Nadeau Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (10)3–0
- P14:00Jackson Blake Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (16), Shayne Gostisbehere (23)2–0
- P12:42Eric Robinson Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:20Brayden Point Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (7), Nikita Kucherov (30)CAR 3 – 2 TB · TB 21% → 36% +15TB 21% → 36%+15 pts
- P216:36Jack Finley Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dominic James (5), Yanni Gourde (7)CAR 3 – 3 TB · TB 31% → 53% +22TB 31% → 53%+22 pts
- P32:47Andrei Svechnikov Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Mark Jankowski (4), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (4)CAR 4 – 3 TB · CAR 47% → 73% +26CAR 47% → 73%+26 pts
- P33:13Ryan McDonagh Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Pontus Holmberg (6), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (8)CAR 4 – 4 TB · TB 27% → 53% +26TB 27% → 53%+26 pts
- P36:38Jake Guentzel Goal (16) Backhand, assists: J.J. Moser (9), Nick Paul (5)CAR 4 – 5 TB · TB 52% → 80% +27TB 52% → 80%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 55%
- ML CAR +114 / TB -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.1 pts
- TB: Elo 61.2%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -123
- CAR +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.6 – 2.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +18 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.44 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +79 Elo | TB 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.56th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.2% | Shot share | 51.0%13th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.7%8th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3211–6 | Road vs home | 8–922nd of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321549 | Elo rating | 15405th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–21 | 14–20 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–21 | 6–20 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 8–0 |
| Overs–unders | 17–17 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 2–4 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.