Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals2
- Anthony CirelliAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints2
Panthers- Eetu LuostarinenGoals1
- Evan RodriguesAssists1
- Brad MarchandPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:04Nikita Kucherov Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Anthony Cirelli (12)4–2
- P27:05Brad Marchand Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (14), Sam Reinhart (20)3–2
- P22:31Nikita Kucherov Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Brayden Point (14), Gage Goncalves (6)3–1
- P119:52Pontus Holmberg Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (8), Declan Carlile (2)2–1
- P113:05Jake Guentzel Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (11), Max Crozier (6)1–1
- P15:37Eetu Luostarinen Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (14), Evan Rodrigues (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:37Eetu Luostarinen Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (14), Evan Rodrigues (11)TB 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 48% → 63% +15FLA 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P113:05Jake Guentzel Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (11), Max Crozier (6)TB 1 – 1 FLA · TB 35% → 52% +16TB 35% → 52%+16 pts
- P119:52Pontus Holmberg Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (8), Declan Carlile (2)TB 2 – 1 FLA · TB 51% → 69% +17TB 51% → 69%+17 pts
- P22:31Nikita Kucherov Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Brayden Point (14), Gage Goncalves (6)TB 3 – 1 FLA · TB 69% → 83% +14TB 69% → 83%+14 pts
- P27:05Brad Marchand Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (14), Sam Reinhart (20)TB 3 – 2 FLA · FLA 15% → 30% +15FLA 15% → 30%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TB 52%
- ML TB -118 / FLA -102
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- TB: Elo 44.9%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -107
- FLA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.8 – 2.7 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | +10 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +36 Elo | FLA 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.112th of 32 |
| 12th of 3251.0% | Shot share | 52.3%6th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 89.3%22nd of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 5th of 3210–7 | Road vs home | 12–99th of 32 |
| 9th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 32 |
| 4th of 321546 | Elo rating | 15513rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–20 | 12–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–20 | 6–22 |
| Underdog | 8–0 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 17–19 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 6–13 FLA in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.
- Dec 15FLA 5 @ TB 2Picked TB 52%Miss
- Nov 15TB 3 @ FLA 1Picked FLA 57%Miss
- Apr 30FLA 6 @ TB 3PlayoffsPicked FLA 51%Hit
- Apr 28TB 2 @ FLA 4PlayoffsPicked FLA 57%Hit
- Apr 26TB 5 @ FLA 1PlayoffsPicked FLA 55%Miss
- Apr 24FLA 2 @ TB 0PlayoffsPicked TB 53%Miss
- Apr 22FLA 6 @ TB 2PlayoffsPicked TB 53%Miss
- Apr 15FLA 1 @ TB 5Picked TB 66%Hit